Asset Allocation View, June 14, 2010
Asset and Market Survey
Economy - Recovery Decelerating
While many economic indicators continue to surprise on the upside, they are also confirming the deceleration of the recovery. We continue to expect data to deteriorate in the fall as the economic down cycle takes hold. (more...)
Asset Allocation View, May 25, 2010
Asset and Market Survey
Economy - Global recovery slowing; Europe is the weak link
Global leading indicators are now broadly signaling that the economic recovery, which accelerated in the 11 months through November, is now decelerating as we appear to be in the early stages of a down cycle. Economies continue to improve, but comparisons with year-earlier data are looking less favorable. (more...)
Asset Allocation View, May 11, 2010
Asset and Market Survey
Economy - Recovery intact, but slowing
The global economic recovery remains intact, but is slowing, as shown by leading indicators virtually worldwide. In the short term*, continued weak job creation has emerged as the biggest risk because of the critical direct link between consumer spending and jobs. The United States is seeing robust hiring in the manufacturing sector, but the overall impact is muted because services account for 70% of U.S. GDP. (more..)
Asset Allocation View, April 27, 2010
Asset and Market Survey
Economy - Recovery flagging in Europe and Asia, still strong in US
Leading indicators show the cyclical recovery continuing, but suggest the momentum of the recovery is flagging in Europe, China and elsewhere in emerging Asia. In the US, inventory stocking, consumer spending and the beginnings of capital spending are expected to underpin strong GDP reports for the first and second quarters. (more...)
Asset Allocation View, March 30, 2010
Asset and Market Survey
Economy - Robust recovery in US, but signs of deceleration elsewhere
The United States is now outperforming most other countries in its recovery from recession, and posting positive surprises across a wide range of economic indicators. Strong US retail sales could filter through to robust economic growth reports for the first and, possibly, the second quarters. (more....)
Asset Allocation View, March 2, 2010
Asset and Market Survey
Economy - Continued strength implies earlier monetary tightening
As we foretold in recent months, economic data has been beating consensus estimates, though not consistently across indicators or geography. US data has been most disproportionately ahead of expectations, although the underlying trend may be temporarily obscured by the effect of severe winter weather in February. Positive surprises have also been registered in Europe, though mostly in non-eurozone countries such as Switzerland and Norway. (more...)
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